Carsington TT Sat 5 February

[George Stephen]

I've been looking at weather forecasts for Carsington Water on Saturday.

Current forecasts involve wind strength F6 (or thereabouts, and thus is sailable), but some of the forecasters which show expected gust information indicate F8/9/10 gusts (which is too much for me.....)

Can CWSC members keep an eye on this, please? For me its a 350 mile round trip, and I'd prefer not to find out the event is abandoned/postponed when I arrive.

PS We were all much appreciative of the early warning of the postponement of last December's event due to ice and snow.

[ray.gall]

Hi George

We seem jinx at Carsington to get this Winter TT off the ground
As a fellow traveller I appreciate your comments / concerns and requirement for early notification, point noted.
The windguru forecast for Saturday mid-day looks better than it did 24 hours so will keep an eye on the weather and will be talking to RO and club manager prior to Thursday.
Carsington still looking very much forward to welcoming all of our Sprint 15 friends and having a real good blast.
WATCH this space.

YaHoo!

[Robert]

Windguru a little better again today...

[Robert]

General wind speed OK, but gusts still looking a bit ferocious. I know the Carsington gusts of old, their being responsible for most of my capsizes to date.

[George Stephen]

Hi Everyone,

Gordon's boat is atop mine on my trailer, ready to go to Carsington - my turn to tow.
We're keeping a watch on wind forecasting sites generally, not just Windguru.
At present it looks as though there is an expectation that a band of strong breeze with massive gusts will stretch from somewhere a bit south of Carsington and Derby to the South Coast (and beyond?). Clearly though, there's still an expectation of strong gusts at Carsington.

[ray.gall]

The weather forecast has been improving for Saturday mid-day all week, and after discussion with RO & club officials can see no reason why we wouldn’t run the Sprint 15 Winter TT, the breeze after Friday’s blow looks set to dissipate, so it’s GAME ON.

Club will be open from 08:30, registration open 09:00, Galley ready for breakfast from 09:00 onwards. Briefing 10:15 and first race planned to start at 11:00.

We look forward to welcoming you all and look forward to some superb racing.

YaHoo!

[Robert]

Cool!

[Derek James]

Guys ,
it looks wild to me ! Which version of windguru are you using ? I will keep track on gales before I commit to travelling , the waters exceptionally cold at Carsington at this time of year
Cheers
Derek

[ray.gall]

Check out the link below.

This weather map suggests SW force 5 on Saturday, Met office has NW 6mph and Wind guru something else, SW 10 mph gusting 22 which agrees with XC Weather.

It looks as though we might just get away with it

YaHoo!

http://www.theyr.com/free/image_show.as ... br_060.gif

[Robert]

XC weather is showing me

12:00 26 mph 56 mph (gust)
SW 11 C

[Steve Willis]

Big Salty ( bigsalty.co.uk/Wind-Forecast-Charts.php#charts ) shows the Carsington area calming down during Friday night / Saturday morning.

[George Stephen]

Hi,

Earlier I pointed out "there is an expectation that a band of strong breeze with massive gusts will stretch from somewhere a bit south of Carsington and Derby to the South Coast (and beyond?)". This hasn't changed much.

I guess that the variations in wind forecast at Carsington are due to small changes in the estimated timing of the rate at which this wind band moves southerly - especially as Carsington seems to be around what is expected to be its northerly edge on Saturday - maybe in it, just in it, coming out of it, just out of it or out of it!!

The Met Office only shows 3 hourly forecasts a day in advance, so Saturday forecasts at this level of detail have just come available. The nearest locale is Derby - see http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ ... ather.html.

Ignoring one of the 3 readily available Windguru forecasts, but using the other 2, xcweather and Met Office we may have a window in which to sail.

Still watching.......

[Robert]

Definitely going to bring my old sail, just in case

[Bob Carter]

Corr - not looking good.
How about 3rd date lucky?
Bob

http://www.windguru.cz/int/index.php?sc=3621

[Andrew Hannah]

I notice the Met Office measures wind speed in MPH, whereas Windguru measures in knots. A 30 knot wind is stronger than a wind speed of 30 MPH.